Market price$470k demo volume
56%
$1.5K depth
← Politics
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Will Democrats win the 2028 U.S. popular vote?
$470k demo volume vol$1.5K depth liq2,980 demo traders754 days left
Chance
56%Yes
+1 pt this week
Volume$470k demo volume
Liquidity$1.5K depth
Ends754 days left
Probability path56%
Evidence-linked repricing across the latest reporting cycle.
Order book
Top levels
LevelPriceSizeYesNo
Offer 1$164k
56%
$164k
Offer 2$122k
58%
$122k
Offer 3$87k
60%
$87k
Market activity
Signals and updates
Market updateApr 24
Election modelLow
Baseline vote-share model nudges left
The market remains in a steady mid-50s band.
Resolution
Market rules
Settlement rule
Resolves YES if the Democratic presidential ticket wins the national popular vote in the 2028 U.S. election.
2028-11-15754 days left
Timeline
Event-by-event log
Apr 24
Low impactElection model
Baseline vote-share model nudges left
The market remains in a steady mid-50s band.