Market price$286k demo volume
43%
$1.5K depth
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Will the Fed Chair clearly signal a 2026 cut path in May?
$286k demo volume vol$1.5K depth liq1,680 demo tradersResolution date passed
Chance
43%Yes
+4 pts today
Volume$286k demo volume
Liquidity$1.5K depth
EndsResolution date passed
Probability path43%
Evidence-linked repricing across the latest reporting cycle.
Order book
Top levels
LevelPriceSizeYesNo
Offer 1$101k
43%
$101k
Offer 2$72k
45%
$72k
Offer 3$49k
47%
$49k
Market activity
Signals and updates
Market updateApr 25
Futures pricingMedium
Front-end futures reprice higher for cuts
The contract edges up after a broader rates rally.
Market updateApr 18
Primary dataMedium
Core inflation cools modestly
Probability rises as the market reopens the door to softer policy communication.
Resolution
Market rules
Settlement rule
Resolves YES if the Fed Chair makes a public statement in May 2026 that explicitly frames rate cuts in 2026 as the likely path.
2026-05-31Resolution date passed
Timeline
Event-by-event log
Apr 18
Medium impactPrimary data
Core inflation cools modestly
Probability rises as the market reopens the door to softer policy communication.
Apr 25
Medium impactFutures pricing
Front-end futures reprice higher for cuts
The contract edges up after a broader rates rally.