Market price$618k demo volume
54%
$1.5K depth
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Will Republicans control the House after the 2026 election?
$618k demo volume vol$1.5K depth liq3,420 demo traders112 days left
Chance
54%Yes
+3 pts this week
Volume$618k demo volume
Liquidity$1.5K depth
Ends112 days left
Probability path54%
Evidence-linked repricing across the latest reporting cycle.
Order book
Top levels
LevelPriceSizeYesNo
Offer 1$182k
54%
$182k
Offer 2$130k
56%
$130k
Offer 3$95k
58%
$95k
Market activity
Signals and updates
Market updateApr 25
FundraisingLow
Quarter-end filings show competitive opposition fundraising
The contract gives back part of an earlier rally.
Market updateApr 19
PollingMedium
Two swing-district surveys improve for GOP incumbents
The move lifts the contract into the mid-50s.
Resolution
Market rules
Settlement rule
Resolves YES if Republicans hold at least 218 U.S. House seats after the 2026 election is called by major AP-style election desks.
November 12, 2026112 days left
Timeline
Event-by-event log
Apr 19
Medium impactPolling
Two swing-district surveys improve for GOP incumbents
The move lifts the contract into the mid-50s.
Apr 25
Low impactFundraising
Quarter-end filings show competitive opposition fundraising
The contract gives back part of an earlier rally.