Market price$274k demo volume
64%
$1.5K depth
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Active
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Will Meta release a new flagship open-source model before Q4 ends?
$274k demo volume vol$1.5K depth liq1,840 demo traders163 days left
Chance
64%Yes
+4 pts this week
Volume$274k demo volume
Liquidity$1.5K depth
Ends163 days left
Probability path64%
Evidence-linked repricing across the latest reporting cycle.
Order book
Top levels
LevelPriceSizeYesNo
Offer 1$104k
64%
$104k
Offer 2$79k
66%
$79k
Offer 3$58k
68%
$58k
Market activity
Signals and updates
Market updateApr 25
Developer event chatterMedium
Community expectations rise ahead of roadmap cycle
The market pushes deeper into favorite territory.
SignalApril 24, 2026
Federal Reserve Press Releases83
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Banco de Credito del Peru
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Banco de Credito del Peru
SignalApril 24, 2026
Federal Reserve Press Releases83
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by OceanFirst Financial Corp.
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by OceanFirst Financial Corp.
SignalApril 23, 2026
Federal Reserve Press Releases83
Agencies finalize changes to enhance community bank leverage ratio
Agencies finalize changes to enhance community bank leverage ratio
SignalApril 23, 2026
OpenAI News95
GPT-5.5 System Card
Imported from OpenAI News.
SignalApril 23, 2026
OpenAI News99
Introducing GPT-5.5
Introducing GPT-5.5, our smartest model yet—faster, more capable, and built for complex tasks like coding, research, and data analysis across tools.
Resolution
Market rules
Settlement rule
Resolves YES if Meta publicly releases a new flagship open-source AI model before the end of Q4 2026.
December 31, 2026163 days left
Timeline
Event-by-event log
Apr 25
Medium impactDeveloper event chatter
Community expectations rise ahead of roadmap cycle
The market pushes deeper into favorite territory.