Market price$193k demo volume
55%
$1.5K depth
← New
Active
N
Will Microsoft and OpenAI announce a major contract renewal in 2026?
$193k demo volume vol$1.5K depth liq1,210 demo traders161 days left
Chance
55%Yes
+4 pts this quarter
Volume$193k demo volume
Liquidity$1.5K depth
Ends161 days left
Probability path55%
Evidence-linked repricing across the latest reporting cycle.
Order book
Top levels
LevelPriceSizeYesNo
Offer 1$72k
55%
$72k
Offer 2$53k
57%
$53k
Offer 3$37k
59%
$37k
Market activity
Signals and updates
Market updateApr 24
Enterprise reportingLow
Commercial renewal chatter supports the yes side
The contract sits in modest-favorite territory.
Resolution
Market rules
Settlement rule
Resolves YES if Microsoft and OpenAI publicly announce a major contract renewal or expanded commercial agreement in calendar 2026.
December 31, 2026161 days left
Timeline
Event-by-event log
Apr 24
Low impactEnterprise reporting
Commercial renewal chatter supports the yes side
The contract sits in modest-favorite territory.