Market price$720k demo volume
57%
$1.5K depth
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Will OpenAI ship GPT-6 in 2026?
$720k demo volume vol$1.5K depth liq3,960 demo traders162 days left
Chance
57%Yes
+8 pts this week
Volume$720k demo volume
Liquidity$1.5K depth
Ends162 days left
Probability path57%
Evidence-linked repricing across the latest reporting cycle.
Order book
Top levels
LevelPriceSizeYesNo
Offer 1$195k
57%
$195k
Offer 2$136k
59%
$136k
Offer 3$91k
61%
$91k
Market activity
Signals and updates
Market updateApr 24
Partner signalHigh
Ecosystem chatter spikes around release timing
The contract breaks above the mid-50s.
Market updateApr 19
Supplier commentaryMedium
Inference pipeline commentary strengthens
The market interprets the shift as launch-adjacent preparation.
SignalApril 23, 2026
OpenAI News95
GPT-5.5 System Card
Imported from OpenAI News.
SignalApril 23, 2026
OpenAI News99
Introducing GPT-5.5
Introducing GPT-5.5, our smartest model yet—faster, more capable, and built for complex tasks like coding, research, and data analysis across tools.
SignalApril 23, 2026
OpenAI News95
How to get started with Codex
Learn how to get started with Codex by setting up projects, creating threads, and completing your first tasks with step-by-step guidance.
SignalApril 23, 2026
OpenAI News95
What is Codex?
Learn how Codex helps you go beyond chat by automating tasks, connecting tools, and producing real outputs like docs and dashboards.
Resolution
Market rules
Settlement rule
Resolves YES if OpenAI publicly launches a product branded GPT-6 before the end of 2026.
December 31, 2026162 days left
Timeline
Event-by-event log
Apr 19
Medium impactSupplier commentary
Inference pipeline commentary strengthens
The market interprets the shift as launch-adjacent preparation.
Apr 24
High impactPartner signal
Ecosystem chatter spikes around release timing
The contract breaks above the mid-50s.