Market price$720k demo volume
57%
$1.5K depth
← Science & Tech
Active
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Will OpenAI ship GPT-6 in 2026?
$720k demo volume vol$1.5K depth liq3,960 demo traders70 days left
Chance
57%Yes
+8 pts this week
Volume$720k demo volume
Liquidity$1.5K depth
Ends70 days left
Probability path57%
Evidence-linked repricing across the latest reporting cycle.
Order book
Top levels
LevelPriceSizeYesNo
Offer 1$195k
57%
$195k
Offer 2$136k
59%
$136k
Offer 3$91k
61%
$91k
Market activity
Signals and updates
Market updateApr 24
Partner signalHigh
Ecosystem chatter spikes around release timing
The contract breaks above the mid-50s.
Market updateApr 19
Supplier commentaryMedium
Inference pipeline commentary strengthens
The market interprets the shift as launch-adjacent preparation.
Resolution
Market rules
Settlement rule
Resolves YES if OpenAI publicly launches a product branded GPT-6 before the end of 2026.
2026-12-3170 days left
Timeline
Event-by-event log
Apr 19
Medium impactSupplier commentary
Inference pipeline commentary strengthens
The market interprets the shift as launch-adjacent preparation.
Apr 24
High impactPartner signal
Ecosystem chatter spikes around release timing
The contract breaks above the mid-50s.