Market price$209k demo volume
49%
$1.5K depth
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Will OpenAI reach a $20B revenue run-rate in 2026?
$209k demo volume vol$1.5K depth liq1,330 demo traders70 days left
Chance
49%Yes
+3 pts this month
Volume$209k demo volume
Liquidity$1.5K depth
Ends70 days left
Probability path49%
Evidence-linked repricing across the latest reporting cycle.
Order book
Top levels
LevelPriceSizeYesNo
Offer 1$74k
49%
$74k
Offer 2$55k
51%
$55k
Offer 3$39k
53%
$39k
Market activity
Signals and updates
Market updateApr 23
Estimate revisionLow
Commercial estimates continue to move higher
The contract drifts back toward even.
Resolution
Market rules
Settlement rule
Resolves YES if OpenAI is widely reported to have reached an annualized revenue run-rate of $20 billion in calendar 2026.
2026-12-3170 days left
Timeline
Event-by-event log
Apr 23
Low impactEstimate revision
Commercial estimates continue to move higher
The contract drifts back toward even.