Market price$184k demo volume
44%
$1.5K depth
← New
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Will Tesla launch FSD in China in 2026?
$184k demo volume vol$1.5K depth liq1,130 demo traders160 days left
Chance
44%Yes
+6 pts this month
Volume$184k demo volume
Liquidity$1.5K depth
Ends160 days left
Probability path44%
Evidence-linked repricing across the latest reporting cycle.
Order book
Top levels
LevelPriceSizeYesNo
Offer 1$68k
44%
$68k
Offer 2$49k
46%
$49k
Offer 3$34k
48%
$34k
Market activity
Signals and updates
Market updateApr 25
Regulatory chatterLow
China rollout speculation firms modestly
The contract edges closer to a coin flip.
Resolution
Market rules
Settlement rule
Resolves YES if Tesla launches FSD for general consumer use in China during calendar 2026.
December 31, 2026160 days left
Timeline
Event-by-event log
Apr 25
Low impactRegulatory chatter
China rollout speculation firms modestly
The contract edges closer to a coin flip.