Market price$231k demo volume
41%
$1.5K depth
← New
Active
N
Will the U.S. government shut down in 2026?
$231k demo volume vol$1.5K depth liq1,420 demo traders160 days left
Chance
41%Yes
+4 pts this week
Volume$231k demo volume
Liquidity$1.5K depth
Ends160 days left
Probability path41%
Evidence-linked repricing across the latest reporting cycle.
Order book
Top levels
LevelPriceSizeYesNo
Offer 1$79k
41%
$79k
Offer 2$58k
43%
$58k
Offer 3$41k
45%
$41k
Market activity
Signals and updates
Market updateApr 26
Hill reportingLow
Negotiation tone worsens modestly
The contract inches higher on familiar deadline risk.
Resolution
Market rules
Settlement rule
Resolves YES if the U.S. federal government enters a shutdown at any point during calendar 2026.
December 31, 2026160 days left
Timeline
Event-by-event log
Apr 26
Low impactHill reporting
Negotiation tone worsens modestly
The contract inches higher on familiar deadline risk.